We shouldn’t be so surprised when our forecasts are off. Especially when we try to look too far in the future.
The meteorologist limits their weather forecast to ten days or so for a reason. Things are just too hard to predict accurately beyond that. The further out we extend our crystal ball, the cloudier it gets—a one week forecast is likely a lot more precise than a one year forecast.
Yet we don’t hold forecasting in business to the same standard. We act as if meeting our forecast is a foregone conclusion, and when we’re off, it’s a disaster. We’ve got to recognize forecasting is simply a way to make our most educated guess of where things ought to land in the future. But don’t forget, it’s still just a guess.